WHAT? - 27.2% Drop in House Sales. Who Knew?

Don't fall over in shock. 27.2% drop in housing sales and me blogging twice in one week, unheard of! But such shocking news being blasted everywhere requires this response!

Let me just say this, "Who Knew?" And the answer is, we did.

I'm just going to tell you I need to blow off some steam after listening to all the news reports yesterday. These same "reporters" were telling everyone in April, May and June that sales had made record increases over the previous year. As they were speaking then, I was yelling at my TV, "the 1st Time Home Buyer Credit stupid!" But did anyone listen. No! Especially not sellers.

Sellers heard the news and assumed the market was back. And for a moment, for some, it was. Unfortunately when most of us have visions of the market being back, it's at pre-2007 crash levels. The reality was, reporting those increases "over the previous year" referred to a market that was already way down in 2009.

So where are we today? While 27.2% sounds awful, it is simply a reflection of the 1st Time Home Buyer Credit ending. It's a reflection of a real estate market that is trying to normalize after being tampered with - again. It's a reflection of a real estate market that is often quieter in July because of families finishing up sports programs and taking vacations. And it's a reflection of a real estate market that is going to continue to decline a bit, until we clear out the distressed property inventory and improve the job picture.

And where does this leave you my friend? If you're a buyer, buy! You have 4% interest rates, home values that have nearly rolled back to pre-2000 pricing and inventory abounds. We even found that buyers buying now may do better on pricing than the value of the $8,000 tax credit. So what are you waiting for???? There is one caveat to buying, though. Buy with plans to be content in your home for about 12 - 15 years. No more musical houses!

If you're a seller, sell quickly. This market is projected to continue it's decline through 2012. Time is your enemy. To my Boomer friends, consider moving up your retirement plans. This is going to be a long slow recovery. Losing another chunk of your housing value, and then trying to down size in 5 - 10 years might not be the best plan. Call for my insights. My honey and I have been having long discussions over this very topic. Do you really want to vacuum the 2400sqft house when you're 65 and 70? How 'bout the weed-picking on the 1/4 ac lot? Think about it!

Think about it, you say. Let's be honest, these are confusing times. Most of us have never lived through an economic period like this. So when you hear this kind of news, CALL and get some good interpretation, and most of all, context for it. Your situation may call for action, or it may call for you to sit still. Either way, we're here as your Housing Counselors.

Lastly, don't be afraid. This housing market will correct itself when the job market improves. So lets put all our efforts and emotion into banging the drum on the legislative steps about JOBS. That's the key to cleaning up this mess.

Now - lets go have a glass of cyber-wine and take a deep breath!

ONLY A CRAZY PERSON WOULD BUY IN THIS MARKET!

WOW - it must have been summer, because time certainly got away from this amateur blogger!

That being said, what is going on in the real estate market now?? Everyday a person picks up a paper, listens to a news report or surfs the internet and finds nothing but confusion. Let me just say, it's not as confusing as it might seem. Most of the stories you hear or read carry little or no context, and certainly don't come from a local perspective.

Here's an example from just the past couple of months. Beginning in April 2010, reports were that sales were up. May, sales were up and, suprise, June sales were really up. Well no duh - it was the rush to close sales for the First Time Home Buyer Credit. Now, reports are that sales are down. Again I say, "Duh." First Time Home Buyer Credit is over!

So what should a buyer do? The burning question on everyone's mind is, "Should I buy now?" And let me respond ever so clearly, "YES!"

Well that sounds just crazy, doesn't it? And I have to be honest. I was having a hard time knowing whether to advise buyers to buy now or wait. That was, until I heard from an economist, that this is exactly the time you should be buying. Sound Crazy? Read further.

Only about once every generation (about every 35 years) does the gas literally go out of real estate values. Now I'm not talking a little 6 month downturn. I'm talking about an all out crash. In my most recent memory, this type of event has occurred during the Great Depression, In the late 70's/early 80's (remember 18% interest only - I do), and then now.

That gas going out is when your Aunt Tilly bought her home in San Diego for $9,000 and can now sell it for $350,000. That gas going out is when my Honey and I bought our first house in 1982 for $40,000 and it's now worth $200,000.

So what do you think this gas-out will bring? Combine these prices with a 4.5% interest rate and you've hit the jackpot baby!

But there's one little catch and this is where great Realtor's can help you with your buying decisions. That catch is the same one I've talked about before - changing your paradigm about what your house is. This home is a place for peaceful enjoyment, privacy and a place to build memories...for a VERY long time (read 15 - 20 years). It is no longer your ATM or the family's 3rd income earner. Contentment needs to reign supreme in your home.

Hope that helps. And now lets bring on the Fall!

GRANDMA MUST HAVE SPOKEN TO FANNIE MAE!

It's been a few weeks, but in my last blog I told you my Grandmother would have rolled over in her grave while 60 Minutes was doing their piece on strategic defaults.

You remember, that was the little piece of journalism telling the world how financially solvent couples were simply deciding not to pay their mortgages because the new neighbors got the same houses for much less. The "Why Should I Have to...." cry was echoing off my vaulted ceiling out of the television speakers.

Well, apparently Fannie Mae, one of the larger loan insurers, doesn't much like the idea of strategic defaults either.

Fannie Mae announced policy changes on Wednesday that will have a dramatic effect on the ability of borrowers who have defaulted on their loans to receive future Fannie Mae insured loans - and they insure a bunch.

Under the changes, a defaulting borrower who has the ability to pay, OR who did not complete a work-out alternative in good faith (read Loan Modification, Short Sale or Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure) will be ineligible for a new Fannie Mae backed mortgage for a period of SEVEN (yes, I said seven) YEARS!

That's a long time. Hmmm, lets see; seven years ago I had children at home, who were still a ways away from High School graduation (now they're both gone and one is married!). Seven years ago was a different decade. Seven years ago was a different President and a different economy. Do you get my drift?

So what's Fannie Mae's goal here? Read further....."We're taking these steps to highlight the importance of working with your servicer. Walking away from a mortgage is bad for borrowers, bad for communities, and our approach is to deter the disturbing trend toward strategic defaulting." says Terence Edwards, Executive Vice President for Credit Portfolio Management (obviously someone important I guess).

And there you have it. What I would refer to as the goverment's version of Grandma's wooden spoon. I'm not out there with some folks who are pointing the finger at everyone in trouble on their mortgage, declaring they were foolish to take these risky loans. Lets be honest. This market has tanked in our area about 25%. So unless you have 30 - 35% in equity, you yourself are one life event away from being in the same boat.

That being said - it makes me sick when people are gaming the system for personal gain at great expense to the rest of the community - and that's what these strategic defaulters are doing. (May I just remind everyone that when you signed your mortgage contract you did not say you would pay UNLESS the house dropped in value? You said you'd pay until the obligation was met or until you sold the property......'member?????)

So friends, lets all do our part to help right this real estate boat. We all have a stake in it. To preserve the right to future borrowing, under reasonable rate and terms, protect yourself if you find defaulting on a mortgage becomes your reality. Contact your lender (but check what they tell you with other local advisors), contact a Realtor who has the CDPE or CDPD designation, contact Consumer Credit Counseling for help with a loan modification (it's free). All these people can explain your options....those that will keep as many possibilities open to you in the future.

But most of all, don't expect to bank the mortgage payment while "strategically" defaulting on your loan. It could cost you a lot more than just a low credit score.

DID I JUST HEAR THAT ON 60 MINUTES?

Did you just see what I saw on 60 Minutes Sunday night? If you didn't, then here's the link. It's really worth 12 minutes of your life to see this clip titled "MORTGAGES, WALKING AWAY": http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6470184n

My mouth was hanging open after watching the report. I don't even know what to say, except that this clip speaks to so many things that are going on in our culture right now.

There is no question that there were some shady mortgage brokers, some shady Realtors, some borrowers who pushed beyond their limits during the building of the real estate bubble. But it wasn't everyone.

And now our real estate market is in such a place that people who made responsible choices are often just one life event away from dealing with a house that's not worth what was paid for it. But does that mean you just walk away?

I say no. There are so many options. Renting, loan modifications, short sales, and then finally, foreclosure....to name a few. But what this report does, is make celebrity of a shoulder shrug that will affect us all.

Two couples, who for no other reason than they don't want to pay for a house that's now overpriced, are choosing a strategic default.

A young married couple, still employed, who see no sense in paying on a house that's worth less than what they paid for it and a 50ish couple who's house has lost about 75% of its value. They don't see how they'll ever recover the equity in their lifetime.

Both couple's in the piece seem to have forgotten there are real people behind those "evil" banks. People who loaned their life savings, their retirement portfolios and their investments, so that most of us could have a home far better than our parents or grandparents had.

And although the walk-away is easy, and the featured young couple's credit will be repaired in 7 - 10 years, I wonder if we'll have investors, at reasonable interest rates, who will provide the kind of cash we've become accustom to in the mortgage market? Would you put your stash into mortgage backed securities with a generation that has the attitude toward a contractual agreement that was displayed in this piece?

And don't think I'm letting the 50 year olds off either. I'm not. We all seem to have forgotten that a mortgage is a contract to pay....and there is no clause that says, "but only if the market continues to appreciate."

Oh, and don't even get me started about the so called "counselors" who have made a business of helping people get over their fear and guilt about walking away. Really?

I've said many times in the last 3 years, how fortunate I felt, to have had a Grandmother who lived through the Depression, and at the same time was a storyteller. I heard many stories of how that generation survived our last financial turmoil. And the lesson? They survived. Wait, scratch that thought. THEY THRIVED! My Grandmother lived on to own property again, to build a successful business (when women didn't really do that!), and to enjoy a comfortable retirement. I'm so grateful she passed on her perspective to me. Along with that perspective came the lesson that, "if you are nothing else, be a person of your word."

Too bad both those couples didn't know my Grandma.

Your thoughts?

THE BEST WAY TO ROB A BANK IS TO OWN IT! says Author William K. Black

From Bill Moyers Journal Page:

The financial industry brought the economy to it's knees, but how did they get away with it? With the nation wondering how to hold the bankers accountable, Bill Moyers sits down with William K. Black, the former senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980's. In this 30 minute interview, Black offers his analysis of what went wrong and his critique of the bailout.

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

I look forward to your comments and any questions.

Your friend,

Amy

How Serious Is The Foreclosure Issue?

Foreclosure on your home is an extremely serious issue. Unfortunately, many people do not realize the extent or the severity of this financial nightmare until it is too late. Foreclosure on your home will result in the loss of your rights as the homeowner and also presents many legal challenges.

The foreclosure process on the home begins when a homeowner has neglected to make their required monthly mortgage payments. A homeowner , in most cases, will be delinquent on their mortgage payment anywhere from 90 to 120 days. In today's economic climate, many homeowners are finding it difficult to make their mortgage payment and as a result are facing foreclosure.

Once the homeowner moves beyond 90 or 120 days without curing the delinquency, the mortgage lender will initiate action to legally foreclose on the home. The homeowner will be served with a foreclosure complaint by the court. Once you have been served with the foreclosure complaint your next steps are vital in trying to save your home from foreclosure.

Service of the complaint is often the point at which many homeowners choose to ignore their mortgage lender and the foreclosure action. In most cases, homeowners are unaware that once served with a foreclosure complaint they must respond in order to preserve their legal rights and to enable them to take steps to try to save their home from foreclosure or take the steps to sell it.

In most states, the homeowner has a specified period of time by law to respond to the foreclosure complaint of the mortgage lender. It is highly recommended that you seek legal counsel to understand your legal rights as the homeowner and to explore your alternatives in resolving the foreclosure action.

Lenders, even during the foreclosure process, can work with the homeowner to help them save their home. Your lender will require you to submit information to possibly help you modify your mortgage loan. A loan modification may help you to cure your delinquent payments and may even lower your payments or rate over the life of your loan. There are also government programs that you may qualify for if you are experiencing financial hardship and facing foreclosure.

If you are unable to modify your mortgage loan or qualify for assistance then you have other options to help you avoid foreclosure. You may be faced with the fact that you will need to sell your home. In this case a short sale may be an option. Check with a real estate professional who has received advanced education and certification, like the Certified Distressed Property Expert designation, for your options.

Again, it is vital that you seek legal counsel and keep the lines of communication open with your mortgage lender. Although the lender has begun the process of foreclosure they can still work with you to try and find an alternative if one exists.

If you ignore the foreclosure of your property or are ignorant of the law and your rights you will lose your home. It is crucial to understand the serious nature of foreclosure and take action to save your home and your legal rights.

Don't hesitate to call our office for more information, and referrals to the many professionals who can help.

REALTOR MYTHS - PART 1

Ya know, everything in real estate has changed. But the one thing that hasn't seemed to change is all the myths around Realtors; how they work (or do they?), what motivates them, or even more sinister - just what are their motivations, AND just how much dad gum money do they really make?

Just when you think you've found out everything you need to know about the "dirty, little secrets agents don't want you to know" from a bazillion of misinformed and, in all fairness, probably well meaning Web sites, here's what you really need to know.... starting with my favorite - - -Realtors are always late!

Out of my Marine Corps training came the lesson; "To be early is to be on time, to be on time is to be late, to be late is unacceptable!" So you can see how I roll !

Every person, whether a client or not, deserves respect. So there's no excuse for habitual tardiness among professionals. I've even picked a Doctor who sees me in his office - ON TIME! (His Dad was a Marine....do you think that changes things?!?)

Respect is providing what is promised. Anytime, we as professionals don't honor that promise, then we've put our own interests above our clients. Not OK.

Agents who don't practice respect, first by honoring your time, are just simply not professionals. Get rid of them. Believe me, there are plenty of us who treat this business as a profession by first giving you the respect you deserve, as evidenced by the honoring of your time.

So, don't make the assumption that all Realtors can't keep time. The Pro's will !

I'll see ya on the other side!