Where Are Interest Rates Headed in 2019?

The interest rate you pay on your home mortgage has a direct impact on your monthly payment. The higher the rate, the greater the payment will be. That is why it is important to know where rates are headed when deciding to start your home search.

Below is a chart created using Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic & Housing Marketing Outlook. As you can see, interest rates are projected to increase steadily throughout 2019.

How Will This Impact Your Mortgage Payment?

Depending on the amount of the loan that you secure, a half of a percent (.5%) increase in interest rate can increase your monthly mortgage payment significantly. But don’t let the prediction that rates will increase stop you from purchasing your dream home this year!

Let’s take a look at a historical view of interest rates over the last 45 years.

Bottom Line
Be thankful that you can still get a better interest rate than your older brother or sister did ten years ago, a lower rate than your parents did twenty years ago, and a better rate than your grandparents did forty years ago.

Let The McLeod Group Network assist with ALL your Real Estate needs! 971.208.5093 or admin@mgnrealtors.com.

By: KCM Crew

2 Factors to Watch in Today’s Real Estate Market Whether Buying or Selling

When it comes to buying or selling a home there are many factors you should consider. Where you want to live, why you want to buy or sell, and who will help you along your journey are just some of those factors. When it comes to today’s real estate market, though, the top two factors to consider are what’s happening with interest rates & inventory.

Interest Rates

Mortgage interest rates have been on the rise and are now over three-quarters of a percentage point higher than they were at the beginning of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates climbed to 4.72% for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage last week.

The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.

Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.

The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a $400,000 home while keeping your principal and interest payments between $2,020-$2,050 a month.

With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be over 5% by this time next year.

Inventory

A ‘normal’ real estate market requires there to be a 6-month supply of homes for sale in order for prices to increase only with inflation. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), listing inventory is currently at a 4.3-month supply (still well below the 6-months needed), which has put upward pressure on home prices. Home prices have increased year-over-year for the last 78 straight months.

The inventory of homes for sale in the real estate market had been on a steady decline and experienced year-over-year drops for 36 straight months (from July 2015 to May 2018), but we are starting to see a shift in inventory over the last three months.

The chart below shows the change in housing supply over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months. As you can see, in June, July, and August, inventory levels have started to increase as compared to the same time last year.

This is a trend to watch as we move further into the fall and winter months. If we continue to see an increase in homes for sale, we could start moving further away from a seller’s market and closer to a normal market.

Bottom Line

If you are planning to enter the housing market, either as a buyer or a seller, let’s get together to discuss the changes in mortgage interest rates and inventory and what they could mean for you. 971.208.5093 or admin@mgnrealtors.com.

By: KCM Crew

Moving Up to Your Dream Home? Don’t Wait!

Mortgage interest rates have risen by more than half of a point since the beginning of the year, and many assume that if mortgage rates rise, home values will fall. History, however, has shown this not to be true.

Where are home values today compared to the beginning of the year?

While rates have been rising, so have home values. Here are the most recent monthly price increases reported in the Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic:

·         January: Prices were up 0.5% over the month before.

·         February: Prices were up 1% over the month before.

·         March: Prices were up 1.4% over the month before.

Not only did prices continue to appreciate, the level of appreciation accelerated over the first quarter. CoreLogic believes that home prices will increase by 5.2% over the next twelve months.

How can prices rise while mortgage rates increase?

Freddie Mac explained in a recent Insight Report:

“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking about moving up to your dream home, waiting until later this year and hoping for prices to fall may not be a good strategy. Let’s get together and discuss your options - 971.208.5093 or mcleodgroupoffice@gmail.com.

By: KCM Crew

“Short of a war or stock market crash…”

This month, Arch Mortgage Insurance released their spring Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and/or home prices would impact monthly payments this way:

·         A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%

·         A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%

That begs the question…

What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?

The report revealed:

“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”

The percent increase in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?

Per the report:

“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”

What about home prices?

A decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:

“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared…Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

To this point, Arch Mortgage Insurance also revealed their Risk Index which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.

Below is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):

Bottom Line

If interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.

Contact your local experts at The McLeod Group Network to start the search for your new home! 971.208.5093 or mcleodgroupoffice@gmail.com.​​

By: KCM Crew

Mortgage Interest Rates Are Going Up… Should I Wait to Buy?

Mortgage interest rates, as reported by Freddie Mac, have increased over the last several weeks. Freddie Mac, along with Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors, is calling for mortgage rates to continue to rise over the next four quarters.

This has caused some purchasers to lament the fact that they may no longer be able to get a rate below 3.5%. However, we must realize that current rates are still at historic lows.
Here is a chart showing the average mortgage interest rate over the last several decades:

Bottom Line

Though you may have missed getting the lowest mortgage rate ever offered, you can still get a better interest rate than your older brother or sister did ten years ago, a lower rate than your parents did twenty years ago, and a better rate than your grandparents did forty years ago.

Contact The McLeod Group Network to discuss your options! 971.208.5093 or mcleodgroupoffice@gmail.com

By: KCM Crew 

The High Impact of Low Interest Rates on Your Purchasing Power

According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage are currently at 3.96%, which is still near record lows in comparison to recent history!

The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.

Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.

The chart below shows what impact rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a home within the national median price range, and planned to keep your principal and interest payments between $1,850-$1,900 a month.

With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be closer to 5% by this time next year.

Act now to get the most house for your hard-earned money. Contact The McLeod Group Network at 971.208.5093 or mcleodgroupoffice@gmail.com. 

By: KCM Crew

Is 2017 the Year to Move Up to Your Dream Home? If So, Do It Early!

If you are considering moving up to your dream home, it may be better to do it earlier in the year than later. The two components of your monthly mortgage payment (home prices and interest rates) are both projected to increase as the year moves forward, and interest rates may increase rather dramatically. Here are some predictions on where rates will be by the end of the year:

Freddie Mac

“While full employment and rising inflation are signs of a strong economy, they also have the potential to push mortgage rates and house prices up. The higher rates and higher prices create significant affordability concerns, which may continue to characterize the housing market for the rest of 2017.”

Lynn Fisher, Vice President of Research & Economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association

“By the time we get to the fourth quarter of this year, we will still be under 5 percent – we are thinking 4.7 percent…Something north of 5 percent by the time we get to 2018, and by the time we get to 2019, we show fourth-quarter rates hitting 5.5 percent.”

Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist

“Despite some regional disparities, title agents and real estate professionals do not expect increasing mortgage rates to have a significant impact on the housing market this spring. Continued good economic news, increasing Millennial demand and confidence that buyers will remain in the market even if rates exceed 5 percent bode well for 2017 real estate.”

Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist for Freddie Mac

“We will probably see rates higher at the end of year, around 4.5%.”

Bottom Line

If you are feeling good about your family’s economic future and are considering making a move to your dream home, doing it sooner rather than later makes the most sense. Contact The McLeod Group Network today at 971.208.5093 or mcleodgroupoffice@gmail.com. 

by The KCM Crew 

Is Qualifying for a Mortgage Getting Easier?

Last week I shared that requirements for obtaining a mortgage were easing as interest rates were beginning to creep.

I wanted to pass along this article as well that offers some additional information related to mortgages & the requirements to obtain a mortgage for first-time & next home buyers.

Is Qualifying for a Mortgage Getting Easier? 

Again, even with the loosening of the reins for qualifying, it is always important to mindful of the trajectory of mortgage interest rates, so that you can take advantage of the market at the best possible time.

Let me know if you have any questions!

~Amy

Source: KCMBlog.com

Credit Score Requirements Lower as Interest Rates Creep Higher!

Hi Friends!

Now is definitely the time to take advantage of the still historically low interest rates before their continue their upward trend!  

Take a look at this graphic -- it's clear that interest rates are heading upward.  

If you or someone you know is thinking of making their first, or next, move - please let us know how we can help!  

~Amy
Source: KCMBlog.com

TITLE INSURANCE IS SOOOO BORING...OR NOT?

Good Grief - there's so much about real estate in the news these days, it's hard to keep up. Lots of inventory to pick from, historically low interest rates, foreclosures, short sales, hanky-panky at the banks during foreclosure proceedings, and on and on and on.

So, why, you say, would Amy need to talk about something so boring as title insurance. Who even knows, really, what it is or does? I think I signed something the last time we closed on a loan, but there was a pile of papers 4" thick. Who knows what all was in those documents?

EXACTLY!


But these days my friends, you need to know. (you really needed to know every time you signed, but hey - we all trusted. And now look look at the pickle we're in!)

In Oregon, our sellers customarily provide the new buyer with a Warranty Deed. The long and the short of it is that this is the most common form of Deed. This deed conveys title, and covenants that the Seller has the right to sell and has good title free from encumbrances except as stated. Title insurance, that is purchased at the time of closing, is just that - an insurance that's there as a safety net for the buyer in case there is some sort of mistake and the title is transferred with an encumbrance discovered after closing. It's a great system.

So - what's the big deal? The big deal is that many of you are contemplating a purchase of some of this great priced foreclosure property. The price is right, the interest is good, and lets face it, not all of them are trashed. Sounds like an opportunity.....and it is. There's just one small catch.........

That small catch has to do with the lenders selling the foreclosed property. Many of them use their own Addendum to the real estate sales contract. Contained in those addendum's is language often expressing that the seller is conveying the title to the buyer by means of a Special or Limited Warranty Deed, Quit Claim Deed or Bargain and Sale Deed. So??????

Each of those deeds has their own limitations on how much the "seller/lender" is representing with respect to how clear the title is. As an example; the Special Warranty Deed promises that the Seller/Lender will defend the title to the property back to the acts of the Seller only! That means the Lender says "I know this title is clear for as long as I've held it since the foreclosure." WOW - there could have been a lot going on prior to that short period of time!

Does this mean you should be afraid to buy a foreclosed property? Not at all. But it does mean you need to take precautions.

Deal with a reputable Realtor who reads and understands the possible impact of the addendum's you might receive from a Lender/Seller. Insist on a reputable title company or escrow attorney to handle the search of title. Be sure that there is title insurance in place. If it's not paid for by the seller, then you as the buyer should buy it for yourself. And seek the advice of an attorney if there's any confusion on this issue, or any other issue in a real estate transaction.

Hope that gives you an idea about why title insurance certainly is not boring. In this crazy new real estate world we're in - we've all got to be better informed and more vigilant about protecting our interests as we proceed through any transaction.

Call/email/or Facebook me if you have questions. Now go make lemonaide out of all those lemons!

P.S.: Thanks Ted :)

ONLY A CRAZY PERSON WOULD BUY IN THIS MARKET!

WOW - it must have been summer, because time certainly got away from this amateur blogger!

That being said, what is going on in the real estate market now?? Everyday a person picks up a paper, listens to a news report or surfs the internet and finds nothing but confusion. Let me just say, it's not as confusing as it might seem. Most of the stories you hear or read carry little or no context, and certainly don't come from a local perspective.

Here's an example from just the past couple of months. Beginning in April 2010, reports were that sales were up. May, sales were up and, suprise, June sales were really up. Well no duh - it was the rush to close sales for the First Time Home Buyer Credit. Now, reports are that sales are down. Again I say, "Duh." First Time Home Buyer Credit is over!

So what should a buyer do? The burning question on everyone's mind is, "Should I buy now?" And let me respond ever so clearly, "YES!"

Well that sounds just crazy, doesn't it? And I have to be honest. I was having a hard time knowing whether to advise buyers to buy now or wait. That was, until I heard from an economist, that this is exactly the time you should be buying. Sound Crazy? Read further.

Only about once every generation (about every 35 years) does the gas literally go out of real estate values. Now I'm not talking a little 6 month downturn. I'm talking about an all out crash. In my most recent memory, this type of event has occurred during the Great Depression, In the late 70's/early 80's (remember 18% interest only - I do), and then now.

That gas going out is when your Aunt Tilly bought her home in San Diego for $9,000 and can now sell it for $350,000. That gas going out is when my Honey and I bought our first house in 1982 for $40,000 and it's now worth $200,000.

So what do you think this gas-out will bring? Combine these prices with a 4.5% interest rate and you've hit the jackpot baby!

But there's one little catch and this is where great Realtor's can help you with your buying decisions. That catch is the same one I've talked about before - changing your paradigm about what your house is. This home is a place for peaceful enjoyment, privacy and a place to build memories...for a VERY long time (read 15 - 20 years). It is no longer your ATM or the family's 3rd income earner. Contentment needs to reign supreme in your home.

Hope that helps. And now lets bring on the Fall!

Don't we all wish we had a crystal ball right now. But who's got it? During a recent interview on MSNBC, Robert Schiller of Case-

Schiller said this real estate market is not behaving similar to any past market that we've seen. Great....so now what???

So here's what we know:

We have record low interest rates.....but not forever.

The Feds have stepped up their purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities. In essence, they are the money behind the mortgages being issued. Last week they purchased $14B in MBS, whereas the most recent prior purchases were around $9.5B. But this pot of money will not last much longer.

The Fed now has $113B left of their $1.25T allotted commitment, with the buying program set to wrap up on March 31st. The Fed's purchases have helped home loan rates stay historically low - and although there has been some buzz about an extension of the program, it seems unlikely that will come to fruition.

When the Fed purchases stop, home loan rates will be very susceptible to moving higher - so if you or someone you know is thinking of selling/purchasing or refinancing.....I can't make it any clearer than to say...."Get the Lead Out!" Rumor has it that interest could bounce at least a point to 3 points higher when the Fed's stop providing the mortgage money.

Well so much for Amy's crystal ball. I wish we could see further into the future to know what we're facing....but for now we can only see out about as far as the Spring.

So, don't hesitate to call us if you need help making sense of this, or if you need a referral to a lender. We're here to help with all your real estate needs.

Till next time,

Amy :)

MAYBE I NEED A DUNCE CAP!

Listening to all the talking heads, you'd think we Realtors need a dunce cap. In spite of the "opinions" of those on your television, I think you should be buying real estate (shocking, I know!) Wait, I can explain.

First, thanks to near record low interest rates, and home prices that have moderated, the number of potential buyers who can afford to buy has increased! According to data compiled from the 3rd quarter of 2008, 56.1% of all new & existing homes sold were affordable for families earning the median income. That's way above the 40% of families who could afford a home at the peak of the market!

Second, Housing still remains the way for most of us to build wealth. Now that really sounds crazy, doesn't it. A recently released report by Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies indicates that even though housing has it's ups and downs, the average homeowner is dramatically wealthier than someone who rents. This holds true among all age groups.

Lastly, WE WILL SURVIVE THIS MARKET CORRECTION! And as we do, our housing market with perform like a bouncing ball. With that in mind, none of us knows when the market (ball) will hit bottom, but when it does, WOW - that ball (market) will pop right back up before we know it. So, as I have before, I will remind you again...the rule is, "Buy Low - Sell High." Let's get to buying.