"DON'T TAKE MY WORD FOR IT!"

Some weeks are just more challenging in real estate. Last week was one of those weeks for me!

We've been in this adjusting real estate market for nearly four years now, but all of a sudden I've had a rash of sellers who don't want to hear the realities of the market.

So here's the low-down!

Homes are selling! There seems to be a pervasive myth that homes aren't selling. Well, they are. But it might not be at the price you had in mind. So strap up if you need to sell.

And that's my next subject: the need to sell. This, ladies and gentlemen, is not the market of 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 2007. We will never see that again in our lifetime. What this market and this economy is requiring from all of us is a paradigm shift from our "wants" to our "needs," especially in real estate. If you don't NEED to sell, then don't! It's no fun having your house clean all the time, strangers walking through it and waiting for an offer that just won't come if you're over priced. Plus, you probably have neighbors that do NEED to sell. Excess inventory doesn't help anyone.

What will help all of us is if we can take a deep breath and accept our new reality. This market will not be turning around for a long time. When this down-turn began four years ago, I was accused of being "negative" because I suggested it wouldn't be over by next spring! Well here we are, 4 years later, and now I get emails that go something like this: "we wish we had listened to you two years ago about the housing market." Dang, I wish they had too.

And while I wish I could report to you that we are near the bottom, I can't. We are counseling our clients to look 10 - 15 years out as they consider their real estate options. As recently as March my viewpoint was backed up by the owner of RE/Max International when he stated in his address to the RE/Max International Convention, that "we aren't even half way through this cycle in the market."

Cue: Groan loudly. I know, I know. But wouldn't you really rather know so you can plan accordingly - or change your plans if you need to??? Isn't that what a real professional does for you, is show you what's coming so you can get a jump on it? Wait, let me guess.....you don't want to believe me again. Heck, I don't want to believe myself.

So since I know, there's a lot of knashing of teeth right now, I thought I'd give you a link from the Distressed News Service, so you don't have to take my word for it. Once you've read the article (clear to the end!), please feel free to call me with any questions. There are many opportunities in real estate......you just have to know where they've shifted too!

HOME PRICES TO DOUBLE DIP IN THE WEST

Ciao for Now!

What's Up Pussycat?

There's an old song from the 60's (I think....if my memory hasn't failed me!), and it seems to describe our current real estate market and the reporting that's being done on it lately.

"What's up Pussycat? Whoa, ah, whoa ah, Whoa."

My clients tell me often how confusing the market is right now; headlines saying sales are up, but there are "For Sale" signs everywhere, in every neighborhood.

Take a look at this recent article in the REALTOR magazine. It really explains what's happening in our marketplace, and from a source who would want to paint a rosie picture if they could.

Existing Home Sales Fall in February

There are many factors affecting the stabilization of the real estate market. According to Dave Leniger, Co-Founder of RE/Max International, we're in for a see-saw recovery; some periods up, followed by some periods down. And in his opinion, were not even half way through this declining market. (I know it's a downer, but how can you make good financial decisions if you don't know the truth????)

We're trying to keep up on all the variables affecting the market, so don't hesitate to call or email us to get the skinny, 'cause we most likely will be chasing this cat for a while.

Ciao for now.

WRONGFUL FORECLOSURES - WHO GOT IT RIGHT?

We've been working daily in our office, over the last two years, to try and understand what keeps happening in the real estate/mortgage market. It seems as if weekly there's some new crisis, issue or program that we have to unpack and try and understand for the benefit of our clients.

The most recent bomb came in the form of assertions that there were "robo-signers" signing literally hundreds of foreclosure documents without benefit of review. Oh that that was the real problem. Having a little inside information on what the real issue was, I watched with interest as the BIG mainstream media outlets played this story.

And then to my delight, my local news publisher asked if he and I and Shel Perrigan, a Loan Examiner, could sit down and discuss what was going on in the mortgage market now. Could we ever!

The results of that meeting led our publisher, Lydon Zaitz to do an OpEd piece that actually captures exactly what the problem is. I've included the link so you can read his very direct and clear piece on the foreclosure mess.

As this story has been breaking, I keep hearing over and over, "well they didn't make their payments anyway, so who's really concerned about a robo-signer, or whether they fully reviewed the documents or not." Hmmmmmm.......

Once you really know the in's and out's of what has been happening, there's reason to be concerned. Each of us are just one administrative mistake away from a potential foreclosure (although admittedly that is not the bulk of the problem). But more than that, why have any rules? Why have any contracts (which is what a mortgage is), if any violation by one party means the other party can violate terms of the contract at will.

This is a serious issue. So far, Oregon's Attorney General has taken a "wait and see" position. I hope after reading Lydon's OpEd you might be compelled to contact your State Representative or the Attorney General's office and see what they might do now to protect the rights of Oregonians.

Beyond that, we will get through these times. I'm reminded of the stock we all come from everytime I look at the Pioneer on top of our Capital. We're tougher than all this! Now here's the piece:

http://keizertimes.com/?p=3465

ONLY A CRAZY PERSON WOULD BUY IN THIS MARKET!

WOW - it must have been summer, because time certainly got away from this amateur blogger!

That being said, what is going on in the real estate market now?? Everyday a person picks up a paper, listens to a news report or surfs the internet and finds nothing but confusion. Let me just say, it's not as confusing as it might seem. Most of the stories you hear or read carry little or no context, and certainly don't come from a local perspective.

Here's an example from just the past couple of months. Beginning in April 2010, reports were that sales were up. May, sales were up and, suprise, June sales were really up. Well no duh - it was the rush to close sales for the First Time Home Buyer Credit. Now, reports are that sales are down. Again I say, "Duh." First Time Home Buyer Credit is over!

So what should a buyer do? The burning question on everyone's mind is, "Should I buy now?" And let me respond ever so clearly, "YES!"

Well that sounds just crazy, doesn't it? And I have to be honest. I was having a hard time knowing whether to advise buyers to buy now or wait. That was, until I heard from an economist, that this is exactly the time you should be buying. Sound Crazy? Read further.

Only about once every generation (about every 35 years) does the gas literally go out of real estate values. Now I'm not talking a little 6 month downturn. I'm talking about an all out crash. In my most recent memory, this type of event has occurred during the Great Depression, In the late 70's/early 80's (remember 18% interest only - I do), and then now.

That gas going out is when your Aunt Tilly bought her home in San Diego for $9,000 and can now sell it for $350,000. That gas going out is when my Honey and I bought our first house in 1982 for $40,000 and it's now worth $200,000.

So what do you think this gas-out will bring? Combine these prices with a 4.5% interest rate and you've hit the jackpot baby!

But there's one little catch and this is where great Realtor's can help you with your buying decisions. That catch is the same one I've talked about before - changing your paradigm about what your house is. This home is a place for peaceful enjoyment, privacy and a place to build memories...for a VERY long time (read 15 - 20 years). It is no longer your ATM or the family's 3rd income earner. Contentment needs to reign supreme in your home.

Hope that helps. And now lets bring on the Fall!

Don't we all wish we had a crystal ball right now. But who's got it? During a recent interview on MSNBC, Robert Schiller of Case-

Schiller said this real estate market is not behaving similar to any past market that we've seen. Great....so now what???

So here's what we know:

We have record low interest rates.....but not forever.

The Feds have stepped up their purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities. In essence, they are the money behind the mortgages being issued. Last week they purchased $14B in MBS, whereas the most recent prior purchases were around $9.5B. But this pot of money will not last much longer.

The Fed now has $113B left of their $1.25T allotted commitment, with the buying program set to wrap up on March 31st. The Fed's purchases have helped home loan rates stay historically low - and although there has been some buzz about an extension of the program, it seems unlikely that will come to fruition.

When the Fed purchases stop, home loan rates will be very susceptible to moving higher - so if you or someone you know is thinking of selling/purchasing or refinancing.....I can't make it any clearer than to say...."Get the Lead Out!" Rumor has it that interest could bounce at least a point to 3 points higher when the Fed's stop providing the mortgage money.

Well so much for Amy's crystal ball. I wish we could see further into the future to know what we're facing....but for now we can only see out about as far as the Spring.

So, don't hesitate to call us if you need help making sense of this, or if you need a referral to a lender. We're here to help with all your real estate needs.

Till next time,

Amy :)

It's A NEW YEAR in Real Estate!

Happy New Year! It’s our hope at the McLeod Group that you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year’s holiday with your family and friends.

The McLeod Group is looking forward to a great 2010. The “Experts” tell us the recession ended in the Fall of 2009…..and that is great news. As a leading indicator, we’re looking forward to what that actually means in the real estate market.

Right now there are several positive signs.

First, we have the benefit of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. The credit has been extended to homes put under contract as of April 30, 2010. As we reviewed our statistics for December, we noticed the greatest activity is still in the under $225k categories.

Second, interest is amazingly low. I know for some of you, a 5ish interest rate almost seems normal. But for those of us with a few more years of wear and tear – 5ish is LOW! We can give credit to the Fed’s for helping out by buying Mortgage Backed Securities. We’re expecting to see those rates last into the summer.

Now for a few challenges……

The job market is still dicey. Here in Salem the concern is over the effects of Measures 66 and 67 – whichever way the vote goes.

We’re also keeping an eye on the “shadow inventory” of distressed properties held by the banks. Distressed properties are those homes that are behind in payments at least two months, but on whom the banks have not yet filed a foreclosure notice. Word on the street is that the number is about 15 MILLION nationwide…..and that the banks may begin releasing them to the market in the early summer. That could have a dramatic effect on home values this year.

So what does this all mean for you and I?

Most of us have lost any memory of past real estate markets. But looking back can help us put this market back into some perspective.

We’ve entered a time that forces us to see our houses first as a home. They are no longer the ATM machine we were used to. So finding value in the benefits of homeownership will come from things other than a continuous cash flow – like privacy, quiet enjoyment and building memories with our family.

We’ve also entered a time when our homes will once again appreciate at more normal percentages; 3 – 4% is a more likely reality….once we hit bottom.

We are seeing an increase in lenders expecting sellers to provide a home that is pest free, dry rot free and safe. Selling “As Is” has no meaning to a lender. Pragmatically, if we want their money, we have to dance to their tune.

Lastly, change has become the norm in the real estate market. Nearly weekly there are new requirements, new advisories, new rules. Keeping an open mind and a willingness to be flexible will make the navigation of this real estate market that much less stressful.

Please stay tuned for additional posts as our team makes an effort to keep you up on the new changes in the real estate market.

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to call or email us. We’re here for any real estate question you may have.

Wishing you and yours a very Happy New Year!