Improving Metro Markets On the Rise

There are now 35 states represented on the Improving Markets Index — tracked and reported by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and First American Title Insurance.

To make the “improving market” list, a metropolitan area must show continuous improvement for six months in three areas:

• Housing permits (data from U.S. Census Bureau)
• Employment (data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports)
• Home prices (data from Freddie Mac reports)

This month’s index shows 101 metro area markets on the list in 35 states — a significant increase from the 12 markets that appeared on the list last September when the index was launched. Of the markets on the list from the previous month (March), 88 stayed steady, while 11 areas were dropped and 13 areas added.

“While housing markets across the country continue to struggle under the weight of overly tight lending conditions and other challenges, the April IMI indicates that at least 101 individual metros are showing measurable and consistent signs that they are headed in the right direction,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg. “A total of 35 states are now represented on the list, with 10 states having four or more entries. This positive news is in line with what our builder members have observed regarding firming conditions and improved buyer interest in certain locations.”

It’s important to remember that the index focuses on improving markets, notes NAHB’s chief economist — as markets stabilize, their performance in the three areas tracked by the index will be less likely to improve from the previous month, which will drop them from the list.

For more on the Improving Markets Index, visit NAHB’s IMI page here.

Mortgage Rates Up and Down

Mortgage rates dropped last week

Although mortgage rates rose recently in response to a generally positive outlook on the economy, last week saw rates fall with news of Europe’s economy continuing to crumble and reports of uninspiring March employment numbers.

HSH.com’s mortgage tracker showed the overall rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropping to an average of 4.30 percent, while 15-year rates dropped to average 3.54 percent.

Fluctuating recovery means fluctuating rates

The economy continues to recover — but with less momentum than has been seen recently.

The Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting indicated a positive assessment of the economy, making it seem unlikely that the Fed will take new measures to expand or institute economic relief programs. The labor market, a key element to economic recovery, slowed considerably from its strong showing in the past three months — new job activity in March was half of the new job activity reported in February.

Spring is likely to see mortgage rates continue to be buffeted about, with no drastic increases or drops, as economic indicators — the state of the economy in Europe, the Fed’s stance on relief programs and the labor market — impact the market and consumer confidence.

(via HSH.com)

I AM SICK & TIRED OF BEING SICK & TIRED!

I Have Decided I Am Sick and Tired of Being Sick and Tired!


Alright friends, that's it!  I've decided I have had enough.  I am declaring that there is no more sick and tired Amy.  I am officially moving on.

Why, you ask?  Well here it is.  The news, the economists, the corporate types are driving me absolutely bonkers every night on the news.  And I can interpret what they're saying.... and put it into context.  I can only imagine what the Average Joe feels like - this stuff will drive you nuts.

Literally in one week, the news was good one day, then bad, then good again.

So, here's what I promise you; if you are thinking of moving, lets talk about it.  How can anyone make a decision if you don't have information?  I can't. 

We'll talk about your real estate situation in the context of what is happening right now, and what is logical to conclude will be happening in the not too distant future.  I'll even pull out my crystal ball and share with you what I think will be happening in about 5 - 10 years!

What else can we do?  All real estate is local, so "national" news reports don't help you much in Salem/Keizer, OR  But what does help is to look at those details that affects us from a national point of view and those local details that are impacting values here.  It's a combination.

So that's my rant this week.  Let me know your thoughts on the topic......but people, we've got to move on from this doom and gloom.  After all, it's officially Spring!

Ciao for now,
Amy



SPEEDY SHORT SALE....REALLY?

Rarely do I get my hopes up that our federal government can have much real impact on the distressed property market,  but the article below gives me some cautious hope.

As most of you know, I've been working in the distressed property marketplace since about Spring of 2008 - specifically with Short Sales.  It's been interesting, to say the least!

It's common knowledge that shorts sales provide an opportunity for an upside down homeowner to try and do the right thing - given our current circumstances.  Contrary to popular belief, and hyped up news stories, most of our distressed homeowners are in that situation because of circumstances beyond their control - and exacerbated by this real estate market.  Short sales provide a dignified way of disposing of the property while preserving the most financial return for the lender.

With money at stake, you would think that the lenders would be jumping up and down to get these short sales done; but alas, it's never fast enough for the likes of me!

Fortunately we have a couple of legislators who are trying to inspire these lenders to do the right thing....for all our sake.  Take a read, and hope like heck it makes a difference.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/bill-to-speed-up-short-sales-process-and-avoid-foreclosure-2012-02-20

As always we're here to answer your real estate questions.....and we're happy to speak before any group you know of who may be interested in general real estate information, distressed property information or investing information.

Ciao,

Amy

NOW'S THE TIME - REALLY!

It's just the nature of being a seller that drives us to want to try and "time" the market.  It's a difficult task, even for the professional Realtor.  The timing of the housing bubble burst caught nearly everyone by surprise.

But what's ahead of all of us is so predictable and I want my clients ahead of the curve on this one.

We've blogged previously about the MERS and Robo-signing mess that contributed, in it's own way, to the housing mess that we're in.  Some of you may have seen the 60 Minutes segment that was done on robo-signing. (If you haven't seen it, just go to YouTube and search 60 Minutes Robo-signing for an eye opening education).

The long and the short of it is, the government has been negotiating with the lenders for a monetary settlement that is supposed to ease the pain of those in foreclosure (don't hold your breath!).  But while they've been negotiating, there has been a moratorium on banks placing foreclosed homes into the market place for sale.

All that good news you were hearing last year - it had a lot to do with a lower level of inventory because we were missing those foreclosed properties.  It was as good as it could have gotten for those of you who chose to sell.

So here's the deal for those of you who have been holding off;  the settlement is very near.....read VERY again!  And once it's done, our friends the lenders will be right back to releasing those foreclosed homes into the market and competing on price with your home. They have 49 months worth of inventory. I've already seen evidence of their plans.  And what I'm seeing is about a 5 fold increase.

Please listen to me; if you have any inkling about selling this year - NOW IS THE TIME.  Get in ahead of these foreclosures that we know are coming.  It's the best opportunity you'll have to get your highest price possible for the near future.  And of course you'll be able to take advantage of the Spring Buying Season - the peak season for real estate sales.

I've included the link below for your reading pleasure.  The reference source is Realty Trac, one of the most respected sources for information on the amount of distressed and foreclosed property affecting our market.

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/foreclosure-activiy-increased-january-activity-down-compared-to-last-year-2012-02-15

Of course, if you have any questions, don't hesitate to call me.  Or if you have an organization, club or group of friends that would like a presentation about the state of the real estate market, or short sales or investing, I'm happy to be your go to gal - free of charge.

Choi for now,
Amy

FINALLY - Vindicated!

Today, I have to tell you I finally feel vindicated.  "And by whom," you ask?  None other than Wells Fargo Bank.

Nearly four years ago, and in an ongoing dialogue, I have been telling you and all my clients that it's going to take a while for this market to get to the place where it can recover. 

Some have said this down market would be over in 6 months, a year, the next quarter, the next reporting cycle, etc, etc, etc.  Those folks looked at me like I was nuts!  What a negative Realtor, they said!

In spite of being called negative, a doom & gloomer, and who know's what else (?), I stuck to my guns and research, telling my clients we probably won't see a recovery until about 2022 - 2025.

There.....I said it again.  And guess who else is saying it.....Yes, Wells Fargo Bank.  Their prediction; 2021.  I think that's close enough for me.

So why have I hung on to those far distant years?  Because; we have about 49 months of shadow inventory to clean up, our unemployment has not significantly changed (we need to drop about 4 points there), and most importantly because we are in the middle of a down cycle in our population.

As many of you have heard me say, we Baby Boomers (all 84 million of us) have aged out of our primary consumption years.  We don't care about the latest cars, clothes, new floor plans, or restaurants.  And coming right behind us would be Generation X, with a whopping population count of 42 million!  That's right - one half the number of all of us who invented the Mini-mansion.  So, who would we be selling all those houses with stairs to?.......The Echo Boomers, Gen Y or the Millenials, 'cause after all, there's about 75 million of them - nearly a replacement of us, the Baby Boomers.

But here's the challenge; the Echo Boomers are not the Baby Boomers.  They are taking longer to finish school.  They want to be passionate about their work, so they tend to be more patient waiting for the right career (think Masters Degree selling coffee at Starbucks), they don't necessarily even like our big box houses and would prefer a more urban lifestyle with less square footage and a smaller carbon footprint.

All that means, delay, delay, delay the recovery.  I know, I hate the news myself.

But here's my philosophy; you can't plan properly if you don't know.  So rather than call me a Negative Ninny, or a Doom and Gloomer, I hope you'll take this information and plan accordingly.  And if you don't believe me......will you listen to all those high paid economists at Wells Fargo?

Until next time......



HOW DO I SAY THIS?

It seems as if everywhere you look, there's nothing but good news about the real estate market.  Even at the conference I attended most recently in Phoenix, all the buzz was about how the market is healed. 

Now that started to give me pause, because the attendees at this conference are the cream of the crop in real estate - the top 3% of agents in the nation.  And I know you all thought I was just a Negative Ninny four years ago when I said this downturn would last much longer than just a season.  So, NEVER wanting to be wrong, I had to come back and put this information into context, because this "feeling" everyone was having just didn't seem to square up with the numbers.

First of all, we've come off a year that included a Foreclosure Moratorium.  That moratorium has allowed about 49 months worth of inventory to stockpile.  It's commonly referred to in the press as the Shadow Inventory.  These are homes in some stage of foreclosure; everything from being 60 days late to being sold as a vacant house on your street.

Secondly, many of the Realtors I talked to in Phoenix were reporting they were having low inventory, multiple offers and sometimes offers over asking price.  How could that be, I wondered.  A closer look tells the story.

Many of these agents were from some of the hardest hit states in the nation; places like Florida, Arizona, California and Ohio.  In some cases, real estate has dropped up to 87% from it's high point in '05 and '06.  It's no surprise that investors are coming and grabbing up these deals.  That combined with that moratorium I spoke about - and you can see how it would "feel" like everything in just ducky!

What we've known for quite a while, though, is that this is going to be a see-saw recovery.  Up and then down and then up again.  And we all know that real estate is local.  So I thought it would be helpful if you could see exactly what's going on in our market.

Here's a map of the 6 major zip codes in the Mid-Willamette Valley.  As you can see, we've got some work to do here in the Valley before we start talking recovery. 

While this map is a little tough to take, the good news is our real estate market never fell like values did in the states of Arizona, California or Florida.  And besides - we're Oregonians....tough to the core!