Price Gains to Slow But Recovery Will Continue

With strong price gains continuing to make headlines, industry analysts are quick to assure us we are not in the midst of another bubble. The current pace of price appreciation will not endure much longer, they say. However, Capital Economics also assures us a deceleration in price gains does not mean an end to the housing recovery.

CoreLogic, Zillow, and other industry observers concur prices appreciation is set to slow, and Monday’s US Housing Market Update from Capital Economics reinforces this prediction. Furthermore, it is not the first time Capital Economics has expressed this view.

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Are Mortgage Rates Too Low to Threaten the Recovery?

The recent rise in mortgage rates is not enough to pose any real threat to the housing recovery, but that’s not to say the increase doesn’t come with any risk, according to a recent analysis from Capital Economics.

Freddie Mac’s most recent survey showed the 30-year fixed rate is almost back at 4 percent, while the Mortgage Banker Association reported the 30-year was up to 4.15 percent, the highest since March 2012.

To put things into perspective, Ed Stansfield, chief property economist at Capital Economics, noted that on a long-term view, rates are still “exceptionally low” as they return to levels seen in late 2011 and early 2012.

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Are Mortgage Rates Too Low to Threaten the Recovery?

Buying a House: Is Now the Time?

The real estate community is often criticized for always seeming to have a Pollyanna attitude about the housing market. Many believe that the industry’s current call ‘to buy now’ is nothing more than a scare tactic with the sole purpose of creating more commissions for the industry. Let’s take a look at whether or not that advice was good advice over the last year.

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. According to the most recent Case-Shiller Home Pricing Index, home values have risen over 10% in the last year. If we look at Freddie Mac’sWeekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, the 30 year mortgage rate has increased from 3.67% to 3.91% during that same period.

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Buying a House: Is Now the Time?